Bitcoin will grind lower to around $15,000 before bottoming, so investors shouldn’t rush in now, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says

Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

Bitcoin may have further room to fall after its recent 50% decline, according to Guggenheim’s chief investment officer Scott Minerd.

In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Minerd outlined where he sees bitcoin ultimately finding support amid its volatile selloff: $15,000, which represents potential downside of about 55% from current levels.

“The real bottom, when you look at the technicals, $10,000 would be the real bottom, you know, that’s probably a little extreme, so I would say $15,000,” Minerd explained. That $15,000 target is 25% below what some technical analysts view as a likely support level for bitcoin of $20,000.

Minerd said one underlying driver of bitcoin’s explosive move higher in the past year has been an increase in central bank liquidity, but as that liquidity begins to fade, so should the price of bitcoin. The Fed has slowly started to talk about rolling back some of its bond buying programs that began amid the height of the COVID-19 pandemic last year.

Given the potential for further downside and bitcoin’s history of taking years to digest large price gains, Minerd doesn’t think investors need to rush back into the cryptocurrency.

“I don’t think people need to be anxious to be putting money in bitcoin right now,” Minerd said, explaining that bitcoin should consolidate sideways for a couple of years before its next leg higher.

Following its peak near $20,000 in late 2017, bitcoin fell more than 80% and consolidated for three years before it broke out to new record highs.

Despite Minerd’s bearish outlook on bitcoin in the medium-term, he does see potential for bitcoin to trade much higher in the long-term. Research from Guggenheim has suggested that bitcoin could surge to $400,000 to $600,000 if it successfully competes against gold as an alternative asset class for investors and asset allocators.

Bitcoin traded down 7% to $32,815 in Friday morning trades.

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